Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNo genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention 28.5%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd22 aug 25, 13:55 UTC1 jan 40, 14:52 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
PolymarketSouth Africa rate decision in November
KalshiSouth Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026
KalshiWill South Africa become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack South Africa before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will South Africa collapse?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves when the ICJ issues its final merits Judgment in Case 192, “Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
- Israel).” Source for resolution: the ICJ case page (Judgment document once posted). https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- Exactly one option resolves Yes, using this precedence:
- Genocide — If the Court finds Israel internationally responsible for committing genocide under Article II (by its organs/agents or conduct attributable to the state), this option resolves Yes; all others No. Resolution is based solely on the final Judgment’s dispositive paragraphs. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- the named outcome — If the Court finds any breach other than Article III(c) (e.g., failure to prevent or punish genocide under Article I, complicity Art.