Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNo genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention 28.5%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd22 aug 25, 13:55 UTC1 jan 40, 14:52 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Outcome of South Africa vs Namibia ODIs (Sep 2026)
Manifold MarketsNamibia vs South Africa
KalshiSouth Africa Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs South Africa
PolymarketZimbabwe vs South Africa
KalshiSouth Africa unemployment rate in Q3
KalshiT20 Series Zimbabwe vs South Africa, Women: Zimbabwe vs South Africa
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves when the ICJ issues its final merits Judgment in Case 192, “Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
- Israel).” Source for resolution: the ICJ case page (Judgment document once posted). https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- Exactly one option resolves Yes, using this precedence:
- Genocide — If the Court finds Israel internationally responsible for committing genocide under Article II (by its organs/agents or conduct attributable to the state), this option resolves Yes; all others No. Resolution is based solely on the final Judgment’s dispositive paragraphs. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- the named outcome — If the Court finds any breach other than Article III(c) (e.g., failure to prevent or punish genocide under Article I, complicity Art.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Totaal volume
- € 93,7K
- 24u volume
- € 59,5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 60,8K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 32,3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case?
- Manifold Markets prijst No genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention op 29% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case afgewikkeld?
- What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2040 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria