What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingAmerikaanse tussentijdse verkiezingen 20269d
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingPolymarket 63%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+17.9 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd31 jul 26, 09:46 UTC4 nov 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
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PredictItRegels
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
