Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd4 aug 26, 13:16 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria:
- Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward.
- Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".
- Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included.
- Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.
- Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.
