Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd4 aug 26, 13:16 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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FutuurNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegels
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward.
- Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".
- Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included.
- Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.
- Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What kind of space mission will involve the next death??
- Manifold Markets prijst Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) op 46% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What kind of space mission will involve the next death? afgewikkeld?
- What kind of space mission will involve the next death? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What kind of space mission will involve the next death? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria: