What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
One-OffSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) 80%Koploper van 27 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
36
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd3 feb 24, 00:43 UTC1 jan 01, 05:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
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KalshiRegels
All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu)Any option that doesn't follow these criteria will resolve N/A. Options may also resolve N/A if it is not sufficiently clear what would count as the theory being true or not.
- Otherwise, options will resolve YES if they are proven to be true by 2100 and NO if they are not. "Proven to be true" means that the proof should be widely accepted by experts on the event, and that it is possible for members of the general public to access the information which proves it true (so, a small secluded group having access to proof that a conspiracy theory is true doesn't count if this proof is not widely disseminated).
- It also means that the option is proven to have been true at the time it was submitted, so, for example, if someone submits "The U.S. government is hiding aliens in Area 51" in 2024, and then the government actually starts hiding aliens in Area 51 in 2050, with proof of this coming out in 2070, it will still resolve NO.
- If there is a controversy over whether a certain theory has been proven true or not and I am not around to adjudicate it, mods have permission to use any system they have in place for determining whether controversial markets with inactive/dead creators should resolve to YES or NO (e.g., determining it by a vote among mods).
- If no general system exists at the time, they have permission to form a panel to determine the resolution.
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt47.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt28.6%
- <40-3.0pt15.2%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 35,6K
- 24u volume
- € 11,8K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-67.0pt1%
- Totaal volume
- € 10,5K
- 24u volume
- € 7,4K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Totaal volume
- € 8,3K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Totaal volume
- € 14,1K
- 24u volume
- € 608,1
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Totaal volume
- € 515,7
- 24u volume
- € 515,7
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Totaal volume
- € 515,7
- 24u volume
- € 515,7
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- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100??
- Manifold Markets prijst The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) op 80% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? afgewikkeld?
- What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2101 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market: