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Before 2026-12-01 89%+19.6ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+19.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
9 sep 26, 17:41 UTC16 dec 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
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KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
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KalshiRegels
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 93,6K
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 45,2K
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2026-12-01 op 89% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date afgewikkeld?
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date wordt naar verwachting op 16 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.