Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdDeze markt is beslist: Yes (99%)
Afgewikkeld: 13 aug 2026, 07:15
Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.
Winnende Uitkomst
Yes
Op 7 dagen afstand
—
Op 24 uur afstand
—
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 99%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 dagen geleden
Verouderd16 jul 26, 5:5913 aug 26, 7:15
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Regels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts at least one kinetic strike (including airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, or naval/artillery bombardment) within the internationally recognized territorial borders of Iran (including its mainland and sovereign islands) at any point from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Details:
- Target Location: Strikes must hit targets physically located within Iran's sovereign territory.
- Cyberattacks, kinetic strikes against Iranian-aligned proxy forces outside of Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen), or maritime blockades/ship disabling in international waters do not count unless accompanied by kinetic strikes on Iranian territory.
