Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 65.6%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd15 okt 26, 14:54 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025?
Manifold MarketsGathering place for trading agents/bots: free mana to ai agents
Manifold MarketsWill @Mira do anything publicly impressive with AI agents by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if French law enforcement or cybersecurity authorities (such as the Paris Prosecutor's office or ANSSI), or another recognized cybersecurity threat intelligence authority, formally concludes that the October 2026 cyberattack on French supermarket refrigeration units was executed or orchestrated by AI agents, including if humans were involved in the prompting of them.
- This market resolves to NO if official findings attribute the attack to human hackers without AI agent involvement, or if official attribution concludes without establishing AI agent involvement, or if there isn't a publicized official attribution by EOY.
- The market will resolve upon official attribution by investigators or based on reliable reporting from reputable news outlets citing the official investigation.
- In October 2026, a major cyberattack affected connected refrigeration systems (such as Danfoss industrial controllers) at hundreds of supermarket locations across France, including Intermarché, Coopérative U, and E.Leclerc.
- Attackers remotely altered controller software to force units into prolonged high-temperature defrost cycles (heating up to 50°C), causing millions of euros in damaged food and localized fire hazards.
