Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 81%
Voorspellers
5
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd2 jan 26, 07:37 UTC4 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
Manifold MarketsSOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 81% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 4 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026