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Anthropic 39.8%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd30 jul 23, 20:54 UTC31 dec 26, 22:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegels
To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas:
- General knowledge test
- These AI models can be multimodal but won't be rated on tasks involving images, sounds, or other non-textual data (e.g. the models won't be evaluated based on their ability to intelligently reason from/generate images, sounds, or other non-textual data).
- It can be a single interface system with multiple underlying models fine-tuned on different tasks.
- The said AI system can reason before providing an answer.
- The language of the tests is mainly English.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst Anthropic op 40% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 afgewikkeld?
- The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas: