Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 09:52 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Nee 91.5%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd21 nov 23, 20:05 UTC1 nov 26, 22:59 UTC
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Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsDid the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRegels
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme FALCON (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://falcon-sign.info/
