Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.4%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd30 mei 26, 19:51 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?
- Internal-only models count.
- If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.
- c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation
- I may trade on this market.
- [link preview]