Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 93.4%
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd26 okt 26, 22:48 UTC1 jun 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by which date?
PolymarketIs the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsIs the Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsWhen will exponential time horizon growth break?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegels
Context: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/
- I'll resolve based on the consensus of the mathematical community at market close.
- For intuition (these are not binding rules, more like, rough guidelines):
- If it's demonstrated to be incorrect before the close date, then this can resolve NO early.
- If at market close there's no particular evidence to doubt its validity, by default resolves YES.
- If there's substantial ongoing work to verify it, I will leave the market closed and wait to resolve until it doesn't seem like that work is still ongoing.