Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 73.4%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd19 mei 25, 12:12 UTC1 jan 27, 10:47 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Hinge #1 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If by the fourth quarter of 2026 NVIDIA’s datacent[er] revenue and the combined AI capital expenditures of Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc have doubled year‑over‑year, the hardware curve is still exponential and the short camp scores a point.
- If they have not, the long camp’s “curve‑bend” story gains credibility."
- The other bets:
- #2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
