Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 13:34 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Verouderd5 nov 25, 14:41 UTC31 dec 99, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsIf a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?
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FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves yes if anyone intentionally uses a nuclear bomb/missile on someone else.
- Reactor meltdowns and other mistakes do not count, even if they are intentionally orchestrated.
- A weapon that is launched with the intent to explode counts regardless of whether it lands or is defended.
- Resolves based on credible news outlets or government statements.