Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 29 okt 2026, 13:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 87.4%
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20
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Verouderd6 jan 26, 00:52 UTC1 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
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KalshiRegels
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.