Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 92%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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26 apr 26, 05:47 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
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Manifold MarketsWill an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
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KalshiRegels
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime