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17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd19 okt 23, 06:19 UTC2 jan 00, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will humans create a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Manifold MarketsDo we live inside a black hole?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRegels
Resolves once I have >99% confidence in the correct answer.
- This could occur because a particle collider created one, because all electrons are black holes, because someone trained a superintelligence on XKCD, or any other reason.
- Refers to the time of resolution, not market creation.
