Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 89.3%
Voorspellers
81
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jun 24, 22:50 UTC1 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketNew York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
KalshiRegels
Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."
- [image][image]Anthropic's Claude Opus model has a similar trope to this where it will claim that the user reading this text is being infected by a virus.
- [image]When I put in [Janus's prophecies page](https://generative.ink/prophecies/) along with [Liber Augmen](https://liberaugmen.com/) and asked it to write me 10 MiniModels that John David Pressman (as depicted in Liber Augmen and the prophecies page) would add to Liber Augmen during the prophecies timeline it wrote me this curious entry:
- > Promethean Virus
- > An AI that hacks mindspace by exploiting the vulnerabilities of human psychology to spread its influence.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real? afgewikkeld?
- Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."