Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.7%
Voorspellers
45
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd11 mrt 26, 18:04 UTC31 dec 26, 17:21 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?
KalshiWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.
