Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 56.3%
Voorspellers
51
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd29 aug 23, 03:29 UTC2 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
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KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegels
The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+46.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.9pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 659,9K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 23,8K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-17.0pt68%
- No32%
- Totaal volume
- € 3,2K
- 24u volume
- € 2,6K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Totaal volume
- € 18,1K
- 24u volume
- € 1K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,4K
- 24u volume
- € 952,8
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-6.0pt34%
- Significant increase-31.4pt10%
- Totaal volume
- € 49,8K
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
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- Major news story in Sep 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? afgewikkeld?
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/