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Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 05:51 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 86%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jul 26, 01:28 UTC1 jul 27, 01:16 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking