Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2028-2030 48%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+3.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd2 apr 25, 01:36 UTC1 jan 51, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.
- This question explores the timeline for when an AI-generated book will independently achieve bestseller status.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve as “YES” if all of the following conditions are met:
- At least 99% of the words generated must authored by AI.
- Overwhelming majority of the core ideas, narrative, content, and exposition are generated by AI.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2028-2030 op 48% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? afgewikkeld?
- In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2051 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.