Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2028-2030 40.2%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
27
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd30 mrt 25, 06:52 UTC1 jan 51, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots.
- The test requires a robot to enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary tools and ingredients, and then prepare a cup of coffee.
- The Coffee Test challenges a robot's ability to navigate unknown environments, recognize objects, manipulate tools and materials, and follow a sequence of tasks to achieve a specific goal.
- While there have been significant advancements in robotics, no robot has yet passed The Coffee Test.
- Resolution criteria:
- This question will resolve to "YES" if a robot is publicly and credibly documented to have:
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2028-2030 op 40% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2051 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots.