In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?
PolitiekOne-OffEuropaVerkiezing1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 77.7%
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Verouderd14 jan 23, 14:12 UTC1 jan 28, 12:00 UTC
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In the Northern Ireland Assembly, parties and indepedent candidates are designated as nationalist, unionist, or other.
- In every election to the Northern Ireland Assembly so far, unionists have won more seats than nationalists, with the most recent election in 2022, unionists won 37 seats and nationalists 35 (and other 18).
- This market resolves to YES if in the next election to the Assembly, the number of seats won by nationalists is greater than or equal to the number of seats won by unionists (it doesn't matter how many seats other wins), and resolves to NO if this is not the case.
