Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
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Ja 69%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd26 jan 24, 19:04 UTC2 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
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The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 69% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? afgewikkeld?
- Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? wordt naar verwachting op 2 februari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.