Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 89.3%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd6 jan 23, 10:32 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?
Manifold MarketsWhich charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any Givewell Top Charity get a grant from Project for Awesome 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegels
If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?
- This question must actually resolve - it is a question about organisational change, not existential risk.
- This question will still resolve positively if:
- GiveWell becomes part of another organisation
- more than 60% of staff move to a new organisation at once
- if it changes its name.
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 30,8K
- 24u volume
- € 18K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7K
- 24u volume
- € 7,7K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,4K
- 24u volume
- € 952,2
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 136,3K
- 24u volume
- € 419
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) afgewikkeld?
- Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?