Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 65.5%
Voorspellers
26
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 22 uur geleden
Verouderd15 mei 24, 00:35 UTC2 jan 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill Roger Ver admit he is a BTC bitcoiner before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone get me to give a wrong answer to a puzzle in the comments? [Convince the Machine #26]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketRegels
Eliezer Yudkowsky is a computer scientist and science fiction author.
- He is best known for his theories about AI safety.
- In recent years, he has expressed the view that, unless breakthroughs in AI safety are made, literally every single human will die soon after the creation of smarter-than-human AI.
- On this basis, he advocates that the world should shut down all AI progress indefinitely until we can be confident that it can be made safely.
- If at some point the human labor share of Gross World Product (GWP) reaches a value below the share of GWP paid to advanced AI systems, and yet some humans remain alive within 24 months after this event, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong about AI doom?
- For the purpose of this question, "advanced AI systems" are defined as AI systems that are capable of general intelligence meeting or exceeding the broad level exhibited by GPT-3.
