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Ja 63.6%
Ja 63.6%Voorspellers
48
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd17 nov 22, 17:04 UTC1 jan 40, 05:00 UTC
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KalshiRegels
I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here.
- (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
- Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
