If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 74.7%
Voorspellers
31
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 minuten geleden
11 jun 24, 01:36 UTC1 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
Manifold MarketsThe 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.
- This market resolves as NO in the following scenarios
- -The 2028 election is not conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate doing so though cheating or changing the rules on behalf of their party.
- -The 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, but the transition of power is disrupted in a way that leads to the losing candidate or their party being in power past January 20, 2029.
- -The 2028 election is cancelled or not conducted, allowing a single candidate to remain in power indefintely past the end of their term.