If Democrats win the House in 2026, will a law cutting or ending any Trump tariffs be enacted before Jan 3, 2029?
HandelsbeleidOne-OffAmerikaanse politiek2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd7 okt 26, 02:50 UTC3 jan 29, 17:00 UTC
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Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a bill or joint resolution becomes law (signed, or passed over a veto) before January 3, 2029 that terminates or reduces any tariff imposed by the Trump administration since January 20, 2025, or ends the emergency it rests on.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes.
