If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
AIOne-Off4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 63.9%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd7 apr 26, 18:10 UTC7 apr 31, 18:08 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if
- this OK outcome is because of an AI pause
- OR the transhumanist future is achieve through non-AI technology
- OR humans are enhanced as part of the process by which alignment is solved
- OR there is a nonroutine effort for alignment, with AI being made by an organisation that makes alignment a top priority, treating it the primary function of the organisation and as a blocker on capabilities rather than something that can be done alongside capabilities.