Waarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 30 okt 2026, 02:33 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Verouderd28 aug 24, 01:03 UTC1 jan 01, 07:59 UTC
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If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
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Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.
