Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+18.3 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd10 dec 23, 20:17 UTC1 jan 27, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options