Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling0 89%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-2.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd28 okt 23, 12:44 UTC31 dec 00, 22:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsThe legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhat years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Manifold MarketsIf the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegels
How many Putnam competitions will AI not win after winning IMO and before winning its first Putnam?
- Winning a competition means getting an equal or greater score than the top human participating.
- Only competitions after market creation count.
- The AI has to be under the same time constraints as the participants.
- Allowed scoring is either just as humans (text input and human-scored text output) or it can get formalized input and have formally verified output, then a solution gets full score if it's correct and minimum score otherwise.
- Resolves N/A at close date if not resolved by that time.
