Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 85.8%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
51
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd16 jan 26, 04:26 UTC20 jan 29, 12:00 UTC
Trends
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Which case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.
- Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the physical Nobel Prize medal(s) in Trump's possession or ownership, not the prize designation itself.
- The medal can be transferred or change hands regardless of who originally won the Nobel Prize.
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets prijst 1 op 86% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? afgewikkeld?
- How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? wordt naar verwachting op 20 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them.