Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 46.7%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 50 minuten geleden
Vertraagd10 apr 24, 06:16 UTC1 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]
Manifold MarketsWill Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?
Manifold MarketsMale oral contraceptives available in the market by the end of 2026?
FutuurEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Lasting means 'present in effective amounts on most teeth', not 'present in any amount on any teeth'.
- Ranges are technically (a, b].
- If a proper study is conducted, will resolve based on that.
- Otherwise, the resolver will attempt collect data to resolve the market.
- Resolution will be based on the informed judgement of the resolver about what best fits the intent.
- Resolver is me by default, or the manifold moderation team if my resolution is disputed.
Open markten
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 18,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 916K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 863,6K
- 24u volume
- € 1K
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median??
- Manifold Markets prijst Other op 47% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median? afgewikkeld?
- How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Lasting means 'present in effective amounts on most teeth', not 'present in any amount on any teeth'.