Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingPolitiekTechAmerikaanse tussentijdse verkiezingen 202611d
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 23 okt 2026, 12:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 99%
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56
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jun 25, 01:00 UTC5 nov 26, 00:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.