Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 04:28 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.3%
Voorspellers
50
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd16 sep 24, 20:09 UTC20 jan 29, 17:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)
- Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.
- Clarifications:
- If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.
- Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.
