Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
One-OffWeer
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:03 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 66.1%
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29
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd11 dec 22, 03:12 UTC1 jan 00, 05:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Tokyo on October 26?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Chengdu on October 26?
PolymarketRegels
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
