Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezing2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 61.2%
Voorspellers
21
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jan 24, 21:01 UTC16 nov 28, 05:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.
- Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
- No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits.
- Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between @/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
Open markten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 16 november 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.