Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Before 2027-04-01 94.5%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+44.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd28 okt 26, 22:03 UTC1 apr 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegels
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Opus 5.7 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.