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  3. By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

AITechOne-Off9j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01 0%
Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

26

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 7 dagen geleden

Verouderd
21 feb 24, 4:362 jan 36, 7:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01
0%
Before 2025-01-01
Before 2025-01-01
0%

Gekozen uitkomst

Before 2027-01-0192%

Regels

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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Regels

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)