Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingLatin America26dManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingDatafolha 35.1%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd2 feb 26, 19:33 UTC4 okt 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prijst Datafolha op 35% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? afgewikkeld?
- Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? wordt naar verwachting op 4 oktober 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.