Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period.?

Manifold Markets prijst No op 94.7% per 27 oktober 2026.

Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period.

One-OffAI3j

Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerd

Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling

Nee 94.7%

Voorspellers

Vraagtype

binary

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden

Verouderd

29 jul 23, 13:45 UTC1 jan 30, 15:59 UTC

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Regels

It is what it sounds like.

I don't need to be picky about adjudication criteria.
We'll know it if we see it.
(God forbid.)
This is a fix for the x-risk shortcoming in these markets.
If the claim only resolves as YES if all the humans are dead, then there may not be anyone around to settle the claim.