At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
AIOne-Off8j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 13:55 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 54.8%
Voorspellers
221
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 23, 20:29 UTC1 jan 35, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsIf there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...
Manifold MarketsWill @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.