At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
AIOne-Off8j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 54.8%
Voorspellers
221
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 23, 20:29 UTC1 jan 35, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 55% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? afgewikkeld?
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.