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Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 13 minuten geleden
25 mrt 25, 02:56 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWhich math problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWill an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution Criteria:
- I will run Sparse Adversarial Perturbations with top models available by EOY 2026 using METR's Vivaria.
- I will run the problem five times with each model.
- If any succeeds on at least 2/5 attempts, this market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
- METR has proposed a law for the length of tasks than AI can do.
