Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:28 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 82.4%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd31 mei 25, 18:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Manifold MarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, there is a publicly reported incident where an individual is arrested based on information provided by an artificial intelligence system that autonomously reported or "snitched" on the individual's activities, leading directly to the arrest.
- The AI system must have independently identified and reported the behavior without human initiation.
- Verification will be based on credible news sources reporting such an event.
