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  3. 2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Manifold Markets

2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?

One-OffPolitiekUS PoliticsVerkiezing4mnd
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
Texas 63.5%
Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

4

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 9 dagen geleden

Verouderd
1 jun 26, 8:484 nov 26, 23:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Texas64%

Regels

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):

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Regels

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):