🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win an outright majority (126+ of 250 seats) in Serbia's 25 October 2026 election?
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Verouderd14 sep 26, 22:47 UTC9 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if the electoral list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) — contesting as "United Serbia" with Aleksandar Vucic as list holder — is certified as winning at least 126 of the 250 seats in the National Assembly at the 25 October 2026 snap parliamentary election.
- RESOLUTION SOURCE: the final certified seat allocation published by Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission (RIK, rik.parlament.gov.rs).
- If RIK's final allocation is unavailable, the certified seat totals as reported by Reuters and AP will be used.
- RULES: - 126/250 is an outright majority for that single list ALONE.
- Seats won by separate lists that later join an SNS-led governing coalition do NOT count. - "SNS-led list" = the certified list on which SNS is the largest constituent party and which SNS officially endorses. - If the election is postponed past 31 December 2026, or annulled and re-run, resolves N/A. CONTEXT (14 Sept 2026): SNS took 129/250 seats on 46.75% of the vote in Dec 2023, so an outright majority here needs roughly 46%+ of valid votes.
- The polling disagrees about the sign, not just the size: CRTA (independent election monitor, June, n~2,324) and NSPM both put the student-backed list AHEAD of SNS, around 45-36, while Faktor Plus (Sept, n=1,200) has SNS 47.2 to 31.5.
