![🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252FqUqhg0h2Ql.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df978e3d8-b66c-45f6-a5ae-88c9fa1fe3f5&w=128&q=80)
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Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min 100%Koploper van 135 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
360
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 42 minuten geleden
22 mei 25, 19:43 UTC30 sep 26, 22:36 UTC
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Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]
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KalshiRegels
If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO
- If the change is distinguishable AND is better, resolves YES
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does not greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves NO
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves YES
- If I determine the change is too difficult (I have my own mill but sifting by hand could be maybe too tedious?, stuff like grow my own wheat), I am liable to resolve that option N/A
- If I determine the change departs too far from the categories "bread" or "loaf of bread" (such as suggesting I make a bread bowl with split pea soup😋 or a BLT 😋 or cinnamon rolls 😋), resolves N/A
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 125,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 156,3K
- 24u volume
- € 26,1K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets prijst Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min op 100% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] afgewikkeld?
- 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO